‘Law & Order: SVU’ 25×07 Review: “Probability of Doom”

Law & Order: SVU 25×07 is one of those episodes that’s frustrating to watch, not because of some great flaw but because of all the things it does right. Our frustration comes more from failing to understand how “Probability of Doom” can have everything from personal moments, to a case that makes us think about how “justice” is sometimes not so black and white, to even something that honors the series’ long history…while being preceded by so many hours that either didn’t try for any of those things. Or, worse yet, tried and failed spectacularly in some cases. Whatever may have caused the difficulties and awkwardness for the first six episodes of Season 25, though, this one mostly works. Especially in all the ways that matter most. Let’s just hope we’ve worked out the kinks and don’t take another major slide backwards.

Coming into the episode, we really thought that the biggest deal was going to be the return of Maria Recinos, the little girl then-Detective Benson believed in when everyone else had their doubts. The one she saved when it was nearly too late, purely because Olivia Benson is who she is. And, of course, the one whose case/episode (in the real world) won Mariska Hargitay her Emmy. (Can’t believe that was the one time folks saw past the format and just appreciated what Hargitay does. But ok.) In some ways, our early predictions were right — the storytelling around Maria, and Liv, and how it all fits together was important. And including those parts went a long way toward making this chapter in Olivia’s long-running story work. Luckily, though, the episode does not dwell in the past.

Instead, Law & Order: SVU 25×07 balances past, present, and future remarkably well. There’s a look back, paired with a success story that shows Liv possibilities for the future. And all of that is a shining light, cast against the very dark investigation our Captain Benson and her squad find themselves working in the here and now.

The vigilante

Very little about the real world is fair, and that makes those situations that do turn out well all the more precious. If we take nothing else away from Law & Order: SVU 25×07, it has got to be that. Some people, like Tori Brock, do not get a happy ending. Unlike Maria (we’ll get to her in a bit), when Tori was a scared little girl, nobody came to save her from her rapist. But she did what she could to save her sister Nina, even sacrificing herself in the process. After years and years, when she couldn’t take it anymore, she simply broke. But even then, she still did what she could to “make the world safe,” as she put it in her confession.

That leaves us with some complicated questions, ones that don’t quite have any answers. Was it worth it? And what really counts as right and wrong here? All we know is this girl never had a chance. But the law is the law. So, even though it’s not exactly like her victims were a great loss to the world…actions still have consequences. And while Tori may be facing justice for her own vigilantism, there is no justice for what happened to her.

Somewhere along the line, Tori lost a part of her own soul. That’s something we see in the brutality of her killings. Perhaps the greatest evidence of what Tori’s lost, though, comes from the utter lack of remorse and that sick grin when she admits, “all three of them deserved it. And I liked it.” (Sarah Lynn Marion is fantastic throughout the episode, but wow, is that a particularly strong moment.) So, we can’t give Tori back her childhood. Similarly, we can’t just…erase the added trauma of knowing her own father did this to her and wanted to do it to her little sister. Additionally, it’s quite possible that even healing some of that trauma will never fully mend a soul that’s been destroyed enough to make someone enjoy those murders. So, just to reiterate: There’s no justice to be found here.

As she does her job and listens to Tori’s confession, it’s obvious that Liv knows what she has to do. It’s obvious she knows what the outcome has to be, and it’s achingly clear that she absolutely hates every bit of it. It’s not just her look of absolute devastation and heartbreak as she listens to Tori’s story. Even before that, she’s pained — cautious about even trying to get the girl to open up. There’s something halting in the way she approaches that interrogation, as opposed to so many others where she is in control, self-assured…lethal. And then, aside from the heartbreak and the barely held-back tears, there are places where our Captain Benson — who has seen and heard it all by now — cannot even look this young woman in the eye as she tells her story.

As a small mercy, for all the story’s gutting turns, Liv does manage to keep Nina out of the system. There’s a grandmother out there, someone to come take care of her. And even after all the things Tori has done, her sister just wants to be able to visit her and talk to her sometimes. Captains Benson and Curry assure Nina she’ll be able to keep in touch — another bit of grace. But it’s such a tiny sliver of light that still has so much darkness hanging over it. There’s just too much grief in this horrible story, one with so many places over the years where it could’ve been made right. And as we look forward, there are so, so many chances for things to get even worse.

As the other part of Law & Order: SVU 25×07 shows us, though, healing is possible. So, instead of thinking about all the things that could go wrong, let’s just decide Nina and her grandmother instantly click. It all works out for Nina — she makes the best out of the rest of her life and goes on to do great things. Maybe she’ll even grow up and become someone else’s Olivia Benson.

“MISSING GIRL RESCUED BY NYPD DETECTIVE”

A lot of recent episodes of this series have had these bloated opening sequences that seem to take forever…and get next to nothing of substance done. Law & Order: SVU 25×07 breaks that tradition — in a huge way. Liv is back in therapy, even actually giving it more effort. (In spite of her still clearly being uncomfortable and experiencing a lot of difficulty.) This time, instead of focusing on a case that has never quite made sense to us in terms of why it’s suddenly the one, it’s all about Maria Recinos. And, as viewers, we’re reliving ~~our~~ Olivia’s memories of that case with her through in a series of “911” flashbacks. (Although, they do still mention Maddie once…and it’s like “quit trying to make Flynn happen.”)

Then, the doctor gives Liv some great advice — “you found Maria once; you can find her again.” So, all the past, present, and future moments collide and get mixed together beautifully. On top of the flashbacks, we see the struggle in therapy. But we also see Captain Benson getting ready to go to the graduation ceremony. And, at the same time, she’s there, noticing all the honors the child she saved back in 2005 is receiving so early on in her career. We bear witness to Liv’s pride, but we also have to suffer with her through her longing. And we sit with the bittersweet moment when the usually-tough Captain Benson kind of meekly just…lets herself get lost in the crowd. In any other situation, Olivia Benson would absolutely assert her authority, fearlessly push through all those people and go congratulate Maria for a job well done. But not here.

Because this isn’t about Captain Benson — it’s personal. It’s about what Olivia wants and deserves, so she misses her chance. And by misses, we mean she willingly gives it up. When she gets that phone call from Fin, she lets it be her excuse. Duty calls, after all. It always does and always has. Even way back when, though it was the right thing to do, she bailed on a date when Cragen needed her to take Maria’s call. (Of course, that dude never had a chance anyway…but we’re not there yet. Still.)

Through it all, Hargitay delivers on all those intense and complicated emotions. And Liv’s defeat, like she lost her one and only shot, is palpable. She’s even a little bit more exhausted, more weighed down, than usual when she first arrives at the scene. But as the case unfolds, Captain Benson takes over again. Hargitay does such a good job of it all, in fact, that we really believe that Law & Order: SVU 25×07 has dealt Liv (and us) the unimaginably cruel hand of never actually getting to reconnect with Maria.

But then, even after so much happens on the procedural side, there’s still time. In fact, there’s even a chance for two old friends to connect after work. Still one more opportunity, even, for Liv to try and hide her struggles from Fin. But he knows her too well. So, he calls her out on being scared to find the answers to her “little questions.” Which, of course, are not little at all.

“What became of her? That girl you saved? What if she’s a jerk, what if she doesn’t remember it as such a big deal as you did, what if you and her have nothing to say to each other?”

And it’s just…a really, really big moment. One that only Fin Tutuola can provide, both having been there with Liv during that case all those years ago and — more importantly — having stayed the friend by her side ever since. No therapist, no other friend — not even any big, bald former partner — was going to be able to tell her she was scared, make her realize she was calculating her own “probability of doom” in her head. But Fin can. And he even manages to get her joking a little bit, the two of them grinning over her not being able to say “you’re right” until she’s on her way out the door, off to go check on Maria like she’s wanted to all along.

And the reunion itself…whew. We don’t get to see much, but what we do learn is everything. First off, Maria knows exactly who Olivia Benson is — that recognition is all over her face, with her own twist of “what if I’m wrong,” not long after she first opens the door. And most importantly, when Liv quietly holds up that newspaper article — still afraid, still unsure what to say because sometimes there are no words — so many emotions pass over the young woman’s face, we know Olivia Benson means quite a lot to her. Probably even more of a “big deal,” as Fin put it, than Liv can ever fathom.

The way Dani Montalvo throws her arms around Hargitay is ~~exactly what most fans would do if given the chance~~ so full of emotion. Couple that with Hargitay’s barely held-back tears — so different than the ones in the earlier scenes between Liv and Tori — and we don’t know how anyone could possibly watch without getting teary-eyed themselves. Sometimes, things do turn out ok; sometimes, people can heal. Happiness is possible, and those are all lessons Liv really needs to learn. How fitting that she might even start to learn them from someone she once saved.

So, it was as big of a deal to Maria as it was to Liv. She and Maria will have things to say to each other, and Maria isn’t a jerk. (Bonus: Based on what we saw through Liv’s eyes before she got up the nerve to go to the door and knock, Maria is maybe even in a happy relationship.) So, now, Liv just needs to realize that “what if it doesn’t work out” was another unfounded what if. Instead of spoon-feeding us that message with unrealistic dialogue like some previous episodes might have done, Law & Order: SVU 25×07 just kind of…lays it all out there and lets us seasoned TV detectives…detect. (Or play ourselves again. Whichever.)

More on Law & Order: SVU 25×07

Kind of hilarious that “Carousel” had that ridiculous “fell into my lap” bit, yet Law & Order: SVU 25×07 revisits an episode where Liv literally said she “would love to have a child.” Anyway.
Ok but she really should’ve gone to literally any other therapist after that whole McGrath fiasco.
Ugh. Fine. Not any other therapist. If Paula Agard (if you know, you know) exists in this universe, no thanks!
“My chest is so thick…my head…is like, uh…pressure.” Me, trying not to cry at multiple points during this episode.
Ok but what even is this apartment??? Like, how much money does the good Captain Benson have??? (Love the touch with the lions, though. We all agree that’s our star’s doing, right? Right.)
“I was on the phone with Maria for the worst night of her life.” And look how great she turned out.
Whatever you do, don’t think about this next one. The little girl Liv dug out of a shallow grave with her bare hands grew up and is living the good life. But the woman El thought he saved? He had to dig out of a shallow grave with his own bare hands after she was already dead.
“Easy Captain, we’re not there yet.” “Really. So, that’s how it is?” Absolutely love the little crumbs (no pun intended) to show us how Fin is slowwwwwwly starting to get along with Captain Curry. Super, super, super work from both Ice-T and Aimé Donna Kelly that we refuse to overlook, even with so many big, emotional scenes from others throughout the hour.
Ok but if you’re going to copy Dexter Morgan, you have to drop the chopped up bodies in the trash bags somewhere in some deep, deep water and/or where the gators will snack on them. You also need to clean up after yourself! (Please tell me I’m not the only one who saw Dexter all over Tori’s M.O. I’m begging.)
“You clean up nice.” Fin has never spoken truer words.
“Curry took one look and threw up.” He’s really out here, tattling to Mother.
“It had to have been loud, no?” You would know, Mariska. (Ma’am. With all due respect.)
“I’m a substitute teacher at a public middle school. I can’t afford a car in this city, much less a hitman!” Love how Liv is going in for the kill with Miller’s ex-wife, right up until these undeniable facts jump out. Teachers deserve better!
“You don’t get car sick, do you.” Dead.
“You don’t even look old enough to drive.” And the derisive “was about to,” mocking this kid. That’s that old school Benson sass. Love it.
There is something so…”if you want anything done right, do it yourself” and business-like about the way Liv puts her hair up and gets under that car. Not sure how realistic it is, especially given that she looks like she was not just under a car when she gets back to the precinct? But just saying, as a person who’s obsessed with movement — especially quality of movement — that was, uh, a moment.
Benson has a serial killer on her hands; Stabler has one on his. Just “soulmates in the same universe that never directly interact” things!
Fin with the coffee trick and the “old school” smirk. Ice at his best. And, again, great to have the little nuggets with him and Captain Curry. Progress!
I am the girl from the photo’s mom. She is me. F— those guys.
“Something on your mind, Liv?” “No!” The lady doth protest too much.
There’s something weird with the lighting here. Like they took one take that was better on the actors, way too much on the lights, and slapped it between a couple other bits with more consistent lighting.
…not Olivia Benson making coffee, just to immediately toss it in the trash instead of taking the paper cup with her in the car. A weird AF waste if I ever saw one.
Love the way Liv initially approaches the Brock sisters. She sees all that mama bear energy in Tori and asserts her own level of authority, yet doesn’t go full Murder!Benson (if you will).
“…and he bitches about his bad back.” I am in this photo and I do not like it.
The coat, the black hat, the shades. Wardrobe is wardrobing here!
“There’s a strong probability.” By the end, we learn that P(that’s the guy y’all were looking for) = 1. Math!
The look of horror when the M.E. tells Liv and Fin how long the dad’s been dead…Liv knows. Right then, she knows.
I could kind of do without the amateur profiler speak in some of these scenes, but I’ll let it slide. It doesn’t sound as forced as usual — and certainly doesn’t rise to the level of “LOL WTF” that some lines have in the past.
The look Tori gives Liv when she asks about her dad’s violent streak. Oof.
“I think that maybe your dad deserved to die, too.” She’s not wrong! (Like, as an NYPD Captain, she probably shouldn’t say it? But she’s not wrong!)
When Tori first starts to cry against her will, then just breaks into ugly tears…Again: Phenomenal work from Sarah Lynn Marion here.
Fin: “You’re all over the place.” Me: Yeah, that’s my thought about this season so far, too.
“Your empathy knows no bounds, Liv.” Phoebe Buffay voice: That is brand new information!!!!!!!
“I see the terrified girl in her, waiting for her father to come. Trying to guess which version of him she’s going to get: the man? Or the monster. Trying to navigate and living in a limbo like that. Trying to…calculate the probability of doom.” Whatever you do, don’t think about Liv and her mother. Or Liv and any number of horrifying things she’s experienced since…
“This is all about you.” Sergeant Fin Tutuola, finally understanding why people watch this show.
“…you’ve been running these probabilities over and over in your head.” Applies to the bald man, too.
Mathematical expertise time: P(EO will work out | they ever even try) = 1.
(Sorry, not sorry, dear readers. I’m saying that, given EO ever tries, they will absolutely, 100% work out. You can’t talk about probability near someone with my background and have me not do…that.)
Seriously, where has this been all season? I’m actually begging to know.
Whatever you do when you see her thriving now, don’t think about little Maria telling Liv, “those days, I want to die.”